/biz/ - Business & Finance

Hey, I've done a few AMA's an even one drunk one... I think. I trade futures for a prop firm in Chicago, mostly oil, but this is how I understand what is going to happen in the next year or so and why. This may be a little long.

First: all of you are most interested in what crypto will do. Probably today, but within the next few days, you will see a strong bullish candle close near the high of day on Bitcoin. It won't seem like a reversal, but it will be reasonable 4-7%. Nobody is willing to short Bitcoin through the printing and effective QE (quantitative easing) that is tether but what is more important is that people aren't afraid anymore.

Bitcoin will rise to 18,440 give +/- 300 at which point it will fall to 1k, possible triple digits. It's important to understand who bought up the price of bitcoin from 10k-20k in such a short period of time. It was the average joe, mechanic investor with his life savings. We say these people are "trapped." They got into a buzzing investment and immediately lost 50% of their money. These people have no appetite for continued risk and especially when they see and hear from their friends that the market is making people 20% yearly anyway, they will leave... at the moment they can't. If you look at markets and recessions, they all typically end at 50% and that is what people are comfortable being trapped at max with for whatever reason.

As a result you will see 10k-18k-1k... The tether problem will explode eventually, but it won't now. It's estimated that only 6-10% of all "fiat" money in bitcoin at the moment is tether aka artificial. It's a small percentage of total market cap, but that's really not the same thing. Think 40 billion created 250 billion in market cap with slippage etc.

I'm going to go on about something a little different in the next post, but since I've come here a few times I've decided to create an Alias that I use when out at bars- Edwin. Irrelevant, maybe.

>>5438225

I think some concern themselves quite a lot with the tech, but many may just have a cursory knowledge of what's going on. People usually pick low hanging fruit and get just enough information to make the wrong decision. It's better to know nothing, or know everything.

People ask right now if it's a bull or a new bear trend, but honestly it could look like either in the middle unless you really know what's going on. If these guys are good at trading they'll get like 2/3 of the move anyway even if they're wrong about fundamentals, that's the point.

If what you're saying about the hashes is true, that's pretty fascinating. I say that only understanding half of what you said :D BCH rivalry is the rivalry between coins, or exchanges, or some part of the blockchain code?

>>5438395

Looks like it's in the middle of a range right now like the others, pretty bland place to enter. Wouldn't be surprised to see another dip first couple days of 2018, but wouldn't be surprised if it edged up until then either. Could test top of range at 750- surprising if it broke that. You should know though that I don't trade crypto.

>>5438734

:D

>>5438839

Futures do not affect the price of bitcoin, there is no bitcoin involved in the trading of a future at any point. The exchange called a new asset bitcoin though and when it tanked the real bitcoin followed, which was actually pretty funny.

I think some of the point, if you were a conspiracy theorist, is that bitcoin is the foundation of the market. All of the other coin creators just cash out and leave like Litecoin, or partially like ETH. Nobody wants to invest in people like that so if bitcoin dies out, then maybe the general trend will too. However, I'm not one for malicious conspiracies.

>>5242130

This one is just chart patterns, pretty dry.

http://ideabuds.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Thomas-Bulkowski-Encyclopedia-Of-Chart-Patterns-2nd-Edition-1034-pages.pdf

>This one covers some things like support/resistance.

https://www.mrao.cam.ac.uk/~mph/Technical_Analysis.pdf

>The Logical Trader by Fischer is a rather well known book, but he describes his "system" and I don't like learnings peoples systems because if they were really genius they wouldn't sell the idea to you they would just use it.

Lewish Mitchell writes some cool books, he wrote created "The big short" and "Flash boys" which is how high frequency started. These two won't help you to learn technical analysis.

>>5242138

Having studied them is not that useful- having traded them is sort of useful for yourself. Some people develop "systems" and try to get some start up money from investors together, but you would have to prove years of verified trades with that system.

Can't remark on what firms are trustworthy... Don't pay anyone anything.