/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>16969219
No I bought a put on a 3x long smallcap etf, decay on leveraged longs means it's more likely to hit my price point then buying a call on a 3x short fund. Mostly it's gambling, I just wanted to put a little money where my mouth is. Foreign credit swaps are foreign banks buying default insurance on domestic debt, specifically I'm looking at major corporate debt, and even more specifically boeing in particular I was studying the CDS movements for.

>>16969194
You're not replying to me, but to answer your question anyway I look at a ton of data, I mentioned 3 very important macro trends I look at already in this thread, as well as 2 different local valuation measures I look at as well. I look at all the feds data closely, growth on housing, job growth, construction, as well as looking at global monetary flows and the data coming out of foreign governments as well, eps growth, ect ect. That's off the top of my head, I have charts to fill up thread after thread though.

>>16796657
A couple times. I'm about 70/30 I'd guess. I got 2016 wrong, I thought Hillary would win and with the euro in such a bad spot I'd thought we would be seeing a 10-15% drawdown. I did call the bottom in december 2018 too, using many of the indicators I'm using now. And various easier calls of course, mostly on bonds. I like bonds, not that there was much movement of course until recently.