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10/30 yield rallied on Friday, big deflation day Anonymous Sat Aug 20 13:09:57 2022 No.51009853 [View]
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Can somebody tell me why yields rallied? A textbook deflationary day like Friday should have crushed yields.

It can’t because of rate hike expectations because otherwise the 2 yield would have led the way.

It can’t be growth because we’re seeing the worst economic prints since the COVID lockdowns.

It can’t be inflation because everybody says it has peaked?

My thesis is that the market is seeing the energy shitshow in Europe and pricing in higher inflation from energy in the US. The dollar was up 2% this week and oil closed up. Or in other words, there is a possibility we get an even higher CPI in the future.

Thoughts?

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