/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>19278412
Until means through. As in, they expect ~10% for the next 1.5 years at a bare minimum, and have yet to provide any additional guidance beyond that. They also don't see full productivity recovery until at least the same time frame, meaning we will not see economic levels (in the most optimistic case) recover until 2022, at the earliest. That covers unemployment and productivity, but to expect a decade's worth of job creation to be filled in within just two years is foolish when you look at the amount of businesses that are impacted by this and not receiving adequate support (see previous post). Powell himself has stated that the road to economic recovery could be much longer and bumpier than what was first touted to the public. The IMF also sees a tough road ahead, and projects the downside risk to be more likely than the most optimistic recovery scenario.
>http://archive.is/jKYEK

The FISCAL stimulus being passed on by Congress and the SBA through the PPP loans are what's stabilizing the small businesses across the US, or at least attempting to. Unfortunately, it's riddled with inefficiency, distributions of loans to businesses that were not the intended recipients (spirit vs letter of the law), credit restrictions imposed by lenders, delays, and an insufficient allocation of budget. The Main Street lending program is set to start up relatively soon, and that is the Fed's targeted loan program to those businesses.

The Fed is inflating asset prices through QE and providing a backstop (if needed) for corporate America. The problem is, those corporations are piling on additional debt, thereby extending the original problem that we saw cause the fire sale in March. The Fed has nothing to do with the PPP loan program. Their QE is an attempt at providing credit and maintaining liquidity in markets that had, prior to their jawboning, no buyers.