/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>30287125
debt fuelled growth.
every $4 of debt created creates $1 of real economic activity. We're in a liquidity trap/ crack up boom (just don't know if it's the start, middle or end)
>The crack-up boom develops out the same process of credit expansion and resulting distortion of the economy the occurs during the normal boom phase of Austrian business cycle theory. In the crack-up boom, the central bank attempts to sustain the boom indefinitely without regard to consequences, such as inflation and asset price bubbles. The problem comes when the government continuously pours more and more money, injecting it into the economy to give it a short-term boost, which eventually triggers a fundamental breakdown in the economy. In their efforts to prevent any downturn in the economy, monetary authorities continue to expand the supply of money and credit at an accelerating pace and avoid turning off the taps of money supply until it is too late.
the end game is deflation and deleveraging if policymakers are responsible

a daily /macro/ thread would be a treat
>>30245434
>>30245538
real economy is dead. the US is a welfare state for its corporations (the only ones who benefit from 0% interest rates) and its citizens. Americans receive 30% of their income as govt gibs.
Truth is the world never really recovered from 2009, people just dropped out of the economy and chose to do heroin and die or NEET instead. Look at this board. It's dire in terms of individual freedom, you won't starve cause of the social safety net, but chances are you aren't living up to expectations.
One day the debt tap will turn off and the western world will go into austerity just like Greece did.

>>30088158
> real economy is in the toilet, has been for almost a year now
try 2009.. lot of analysts say the economy never recovered after the great recession. people just dropped out of the workforce. look at the NEETs, small towns dying of opioids. US centric but UK doesn't look so hot either; not sure about the rest.
All the growth has been debt, it takes something like $5 of debt to $12 of debt to return $1 of GDP growth.

>>29988157
the m1 increase isn't even "liquid." it's stuck entirely in bank reserves, it's an illusion
>>29987791
>>29988127
>>29989075
>>29989031
the economy and financial system is so full of distortions that nobody really knows which way it is heading.
Being a contrarian the common narrative of inflation just makes me scream this can't be the case.
There are so many different interpretations of what is going on right now - from people a lot smarter than the posters here that means there's a great deal of uncertainty going forward.
Every poster on /biz/ just wants/desires inflation because they think their asset allocation will do well in that scenario. Truth is it's a lot more complicated than that.

>>29988354
The real economy not growing is the root of all problems. Here's a stat - it roughly $12 in debt to generate $1 of economic growth. All the recent past has been grown on DEBT.
It's not a right vs left thing it's been trending down since the Bush years. The economy hasn't been growing for a long, long time and Trump didn't do anything to reverse it with the four years he had.
Popping the bubble, but also reforming the welfare state is what's needed. There hasn't been a proper bust cycle since Alan Greenspan started the pumping nonsense.