/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18722412
>>18722435
>>18722446
These BTC narratives seem very continuous in the chart. However, if we combine the narratives with financial milestones (and later S2F and price data), they look very much like phases with more abrupt transitions:

“Proof of concept” -> after Bitcoin white paper [7]
“Payments” -> after USD parity (1BTC = $1)
“E-Gold” -> after 1st halving, almost gold parity (1BTC = 1 ounce of gold)
“Financial asset” -> after 2nd halving ($1B transactions per day milestone, legal clarity in Japan and Australia, futures markets at CME and Bakkt)

These three examples of phase transitions in water, US Dollar and BTC offer a new perspective on BTC and S2F. It is important to not only think in term of continuous time series but also in phases with abrupt transitions. In developing S2FX model, I see BTC in each phase as a new asset, with totally different properties. A logical next step is identifying and quantifying BTC phase transitions.
BTC S2F Cross Asset (S2FX) Model

The chart below shows the monthly BTC S2F and price data points used in the original S2F model. One can visually identify four clusters.