/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>54212695
>You are already scared, you sold, you hedged, you've been bearish for 3 years.
Bobo in /smg/ may have.. but the average retail investor, the average institution / fund has not. We have had more than a decade of automatic investment in QE. The market is extremely long.
>When everyone expects the worst, doesn't that get reflected in asset prices?
That's the thing, although the narrative is "75% recession chance" it has not been reflected in asset prices -- look at earnings per share estimates for 2023, 2024. The market has not priced in the reality of an incoming sharp recession and the effect it will have on corporate earnings. It has not been priced in. Earnings are expected to grow, and keep growing, with zero expectation of a dip in earnings. When earnings dip, as is inevitable when the recession hits, it has not yet been priced in. The market still thinks we are getting soft landing, or literally no landing. Please show me how the market has priced in a recession in earnings per share estimates - I'll wait
>EVERY Bobo is a doomer now. Every Twitter midwit, YouTube literally who, retarded redditor is bearish
If there's reason to be bearish, are they really a doomer? If there is doom on the horizon, is it crazy to be pessimistic? We have been talking about the looming credit / banking crisis for months, and it finally has manifested. Everything that /smg/ bobos have talked about has come to fruition. It just isn't happening as fast as bobo would like, and not in a straight vertical move down. A painful, dragged out bear market, with lots of rallies in between.

>>54041604
Who is ignoring what?
Who hasn't been aware of the bear market rally?

>>53905088
>25% was a huge crash
you need to look back at previous market crashes throughout history, especially ones that followed ridiculous bull markets - ones propped up by a decade of QE
for example
>in early 2001, the dot-com stock bubble started to burst. The NASDAQ peaked at 5,048.62 points on March 10. The index would go on to plummet by 76.81% until it reached a low of 1,139.90 points on Oct. 4, 2002.
>The Dow didn't reach its lowest point, which was 54% below its peak, until March 6, 2009
>The Dow continued to lose value until the summer of 1932, when it bottomed out at 41 points, a stomach-churning 89% below its peak. The Dow didn't regain its pre-crash value until 1954.
25% is relatively small

>>53868504
it takes time, and we are patient :^)

>>53379164
it takes time - we are patient

>>53327147
>my portfolio is up 10% in just 2 months!
>man, bears are such retards!

>>53272656
yes - they 100% care about liquidity lol.
they are able to sell their positions without slippage
they are able to enter new positions without slippage
fund wait until there is huge volume to reposition
a move higher above the trendline will provide this liquidity