/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>18150199
it's not that volatile if you zoom out it just goes up and up

>>17844646
My problem with this chart, right off the bat, is that There are really only two data points: Cycle 2 and Cycle 3.

Cycle 1 is obviously incomplete. We went from informal trading to exchange trading, but BTC already existed prior to that point.

Cycle 4 hasn't actually completed yet.

Then, when we examine Cycle 2, it may have been the case that this one was abnormally short due to Bitcoin becoming exchange traded for the first time.

That leaves us with Cycle 3. And I don't see any reasoning why the cycles should get longer when the actual supply reductions are predictably evenly spaced. If you follow the model out to the next halving, it would occur at an awkward time.

>>17798730
this is the only ta i believe in
when it's below the blue line buy! when it's above sell! that simple.

>>17756996
Store of value is always intended in a long-term sense. It's obviously not a store of value in the short-term.

You faggots are so annoying about this.

>>17561543
linear is bad approach

>>17376581
Livestream the suicide please.

>>17046860
the blue line is all that matters.

>>16948387
nah it won't dump it will follow this line forever if it's above or below temporarily doesn't matter.

>>16878223
it's very simple to objectively tell if bitcoin under or over valued or perfectly valued.
the blue line is as close to it's fair valuation as possible.

>>16662701
>There should be a block size limit that adjusts to the daily, monthly, and annual hash rate, on chain transaction volume and supply and demand of the coin.
interesting idea but actually it's the average or median fees you want to adjust the block size to. however you need to know the price and bitcoin protocol doesn't know the price. it only knows difficulty and coinbase.

so you could hard-cap limit the block size to the x^2 mb where x is starting at 1 and increments with every halving. that works. but the soft limit should somehow depend on fees. however bitcoin has only one indicator it can use to determine it's value and that's hashrate. which in itself requires constant adjustments at every technological jump.
unless you program this power law curve into calculating the "fair price" of bitcoin into the protocol which will result in relatively low fees in case the price is under and relatively high fees when the price is above.

>>16600552
learn from the master noob!

>>16583231
the only real answer

>>16557553
not really i mean it can spike to that level but no

>>16460620
not long now

>>16428901
it just makes sense as a 3y period investment.
short term trading is gambling long term viability is questionable but what you can count on is greed fomo and scarcity. also the fact that bitcoin is unconfiscateable and easy to transact unlike the absolute shitcoin silver which is not even scarce.

>>16393034
you couldn't be more wrong.
bitcoin will just go up and up short term price is indeed irrelevant tho.

>>16342116
bullish
also the only chart that actually matters

>>16311267
just hodl!

here is a power law approximation to bitcoin price

you could theoretically use it to determine the purchasing power change of sats over long enough time.

you could set the absolute max blocksize limit to y=2^x mb here x are halvings

you could also set the valid block size limit for any given time based on the average total fees accrued in every n block if the average fees value multiplied with the power law function gives you more than $0.7 you increase the block limit with 1% if it's below $0.3 you decrease the block limit with 1%

crude and simple and probably would work out well enough. not as complicated as moneros.

of course it has it's problems if bitcoin takes up an other valuation curve this gets broken and require an other hard fork to adjust the parameters.

if the median fees offered by users over a moving average can be used to approximate bitcoin valuation that would be even better. without oracles of course. fuck oracles for this! fuck staking and coin burns also!

also i have been thinking long and hard how btc could increase the block size to accommodate growth without giving up the fee market...

btc needs to use this regression as baseline for fee usd values. the blue line may not be totally accurate every time but close enough long term.

so the miners can check the last 100 blocks fees multiplied by the blue line at the date and determine how much the average tx fees were worth and use that to adjust the block size limit for a valid block up or down. if the average tx fee is higher than $1 for 100 days increase the block size, if lower then 50 cents decrease it... for example. 0 fee tx-es don't count into this equation if any included. this can actually be worked into the consensus algo. no need for oracles and shit.

i'm sure it can be improved a lot finding the correct constant values would take some time.

>>16100629
this!
>>16100635
yeah because it's a shitcoin. it was predicted long before it would do so.

>>16029860
this

>>15920370
lower your expectations they are undrealistic

>>15919285

20k in a year and a half if you put it into Bitcoin now.