/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>12356060

Just imagine being a year in to a crypto bear market, but the very beginning of a market recession, and blowing all your money, right fucking now, on a depreciating asset that is about to tank in value.

The answer to your question is: no, fuck no, the difference between putting all your money into this gay looking house and slamming it all into Bitcoin will probably be:

Projected 5 year returns:

House of Gay: -25%
Bitcoin: 1000%

Literally what's going to happen, ignore this at your own cost.

GRAPHINE ROD REINFORCED TITANIUM COATED DIAMOND ENCRUSTED TUNGSTEN WRAPPED TEFLON PLATED DARK MATTER STRENGTH SUPPORT AT 6600

WE'RE GOING UP LADS

>>10442346

>ETFs rejected

Literally orders of magnitude times fucking bigger than Mt Gox, and everybody playing it off like it's small news. The amount of money stolen in Mt Gox was approximately, what, $500M?

The amount of expected capital inflow from a Bitcoin settled ETF is in the fucking TRILLIONS of USD.

The denial is real from latecomers and bagholders who have absolutely no insight into what matters in this market. They are all busy consoling and pep talking each other (/r/bitcoin especially) because they cannot handle that everybody who bought between Nov 17 and now has been sold an absolute turd of an investment, they literally could have made much more money just buying the fucking SP500 since then, and now they want to get rich like all the early holders as if there is some magic way for that to happen, while denying the hard reality of where the fucking money is going to come from.

It has to come from somewhere, and the one channel that could allow it has just been closed.

lol the absolute fucking state of crypto bagholders

Yeah just stick it all in there right at the end of the longest bull run in stock market history.

Reddit tier /r/investing plebs will tell you never to time the market, this is because they don't understand the calculus of investing.

The problem comes from several realisations about stock market history:

1) There are regular large crashes
2) The large crashes collapse by an average percentage.
3) The longer a crash has been delayed, the more likely it will appear at some point.

Sadly a lot of mouth breathers confuse the last point for a gambler's fallacy, but that is in itself a fallacy because there is no historic precedent for the stock market to not crash.

Now, once you realise the above, you can get down to the business of figuring out whether it's safe to invest. The main thing you need to know is that if, for example, the stock market increases 50% over a given time, and then crashes by 50%, you will have just made a net loss. Therefore, if you accept that the market will crash by, I dunno, 50%, but that you don't know when this will be, but you do know that the market will also gain about 10% per year, then you get an idea as to how long the market will have to continue going up in order for your investment to profit, and the answer in our case is 8 FUCKING YEARS.

Now the size of the crash is not guaranteed here, in fact the last couple of corrections were slightly less than that, but then again the increases were less than calculated.

Either way, what I'm saying here is that unless you like losing lots of money quite quickly, STAY THE FUCK OUT OF THE STOCK MARKET UNTIL THERE'S A FUCKING CORRECTION