/biz/ - Business & Finance

When did the cross happen for Japan?
They had a two decade bear market in housing and still nowhere near breaking even after 3.

I'm really curious why in Argentina it happened this way, while in Japan (same printing / spending policies) it happened the complete opposite. Any theory behind this?

>>29032882
Japan has printed more and more year after year since 1992 and look what happened to their property market

>>28829050
Consider the comparisons you have ITT to the 90s and 2008, and also see the Japan scenario (similar to contemporary US macro policies). If you bought in japan in 1991 your house would lose value for 20 years and still not break even after 30.

Can you give a rational case for why prices will continue to rise in the US?

>>27886469
>>27887404
I don't know man. I'm stuck with the same decisions in this clown market. I could give you millions of reasons of why prices will keep going up and I'd continue to get more and more outpriced. At the same time, there is an equal case of getting bogged at the top. Think of Japan, 1991. If you bought, then your property would be losing value for 20 years, and still not break even 30 years later.

Right now, the optionality of renting seems like a better deal. That, and buying a house in my area would take 10x my networth. So I'd be 10x exposed to the downside. Compare it to buying GME with 10x margin. I don't really have the balls (or the luck) to do it

>>26117623
If that were the case, wouldn't you expect prices to behave like they did in Japan?
JCB has been doing QE since the 90s, in the same way we are set to do over the next decade. Prices peaked in 1991 and have not yet recovered.
>CBs give printed dollars directly to financial firms
But you know that QE is just a trade of a bond for a reserve balance. The bank that made the trade is no richer or poorer afterwards.

>>25218492
If you take other historic examples, life changed so drastically for those countries' subjects during debt defaults. I think being prepared would mean having your wealth spread out enough not to lose it all, and have a plan to get it out of the banking system and the country to avoid capital controls or confiscation like in Lebanon recently or Argentina (again) or Cyprus not too long ago. Crypto was useful in each case.

On the other hand, Japan has been doing QE longer and their demographics pretty much overwhelmed inflation

>>24790651
True, except if you buy in Japan in 1991, you would had been losing money for 25 years, and still not at break even after 30.

>>24318096
Let's say you bought a place in Japan in the 90s.
You waited 3 decades and its still worth LESS than when you bought it. Not to mention you paid 60% of the home's init value in interest over those years. Of course you're not locked in, but RE can't just go up forever. To unlock you might have to sell at a huge loss.

>>23359400
Think about it.
If you believe negative interest rates are coming you should also believe house prices will be falling. Interest rates will go negative because of deflationary expectations.

Right now, you would be buying the top, like buying a condo in Tokyo in 1991. Literally losing value every year for 25 years -40% total so far, as you can see from this pic related graphical chart jpeg.

You would also miss out on potentially lower, and even NEGATIVE mortgage rates. See Jyske Bank in Denmark: they have a -0.5% mortgage rate. They pay you to take the loan to buy a house.

>>23181501
What if you end up buying the top then your house begins losing 40% of its value over 30 years?