/biz/ - Business & Finance

okay this is the thread i was looking for:
My posts from another thread:

well of course, they're pushing 25 bp per qtr under the auspices of inflation targeting when we JUST got unemployment at a desirable level. they should have waited a year or 6 qtrs before doing so, now they might cause a market liquidation (which desu was overdue). Under QE (obama) so much money was pumped into stocks and driven away from Tbonds and capital. The market you are seeing is correcting from financials but the question is will they invest in capital or liquidate and flee?

you also have to realize that trade imbalances are mitigated by financial investment. so as we do away with trade deficits, you can expect less foreign money flooding the stock market. So i'm not worried at all. I am concerned that agressive fed policy will crash direct investment and capitalization though. not allowing for the market to slowly adapt.

I don't think the raise in ffr is enough to bull the Treasury market.
but with jobs coming back I can see investors liquidating for capital investment. question is will it pan out?
if it does, then we need the bull market now as investments pour into capital, only to boom the market later. as the trade balance equalizes we'll see less foreign investment (which I think is good), but we'll see a relatively long period of instability and recapitalization. but when the dust settles we'll be better off. That is of course, if Trump lasts long enough. two more hikes would be 50 basis points. It depends on how they do it. If they do it in the first quarter it could be devastating, but so would fourth. and to be honest, the market responds to expectations, not reality. so as long as they think a hike is coming, they'll bail and flip out.

fight me; I want to learn