/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>27803408
You're missing the point. The point is that those kinds of indicators are weak at best. A good indicator would be good enough to short on.

>You'll be right most of the time, and if you aren't, then the worst that happens is you miss out on profits
See pic related. The problem with weak indicators: if you're right, and manage to miss a significant portion of the dip, you'll lose just as much potential profit missing the inevitable upwards jump. A few days make up most of you're profit. You'll also lose a lot of potential gains having cash just sit there. Even the best investors like Warren Buffett, with huge amounts of capital and data at their disposal, didn't gain much from the 2008 crash.

>>27800603
If you're actually timing the market (which is nigh impossible), the gains from selling on green and buying on red (avoiding losses) would outweigh the tax implications. See pic

>>27800704
There are (mostly) vega-neutral options strategies such as call/put spreads.