/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>49945671
>>49940788
>>49940783
>>49943847


Alright guys so here's where we're at today. I have a lot of money on this so I'm intensely focused. I've pulled out notes and texts from my trading courses and am applying all the techniques. I'll start with the athabasca chart since it's the most relevant to most of us.

Before I start. I quickly want to say I am highly, highly skeptical of this bounce we're having today. Athabasca is up about 8% or so and oil is at about $107.

I think this is likely just short covering. Very unusual for something like this to rally on a friday, especially in the midst of massive broad market sell offs and bear rally dynamics so that sets off alarm bells for me. Why would someone want to hodl a hot potato over the weekend? In the midst of market sell offs, at the end of the month (when traders typically try to bring prices down), and with a federal reserve meeting coming up where rates are expected to be hiked? Doesn't make sense... so I whipped out the swing lines.


So after applying the swing lines you can see that we are still in a clear down trend. Today is known as what is called an "inside day", in which the bar for the day is "inside" the previous day aka the high of the previous day is not taken out and the low of the previous day is not taken out. This forms an apex on the swingline. After applying the swinglines, you can see that we are in a clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows and in fact this would be a great place to initiate a short position, solely based on the swinglines, if not for two problems....

Problem one: We are right against the Bolinger band (in white) which is a profit taking target for traders and algorithms. By definition, market pries will stay constrained in Bollinger bands for 95% of the time. You NEVER initiate a trade on a bollinger band.

Problem two: We are butting right against the 100 DMA which is a fairly strong support/ resistance (not as strong as the 200),