/biz/ - Business & Finance

Anonymous Tue Jan 10 07:34:58 2023 No.53204971 [View]
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looking into this dot plot nonsense. fed is projecting 5% terminal.
market bets on this using futures
>30-Day CME Fed Funds futures pricing
probability of only 50bps more total increased by 10% on monday (based on what???) and some blame that for the rally today.
in the fed's plot they say their reasoning is based on PCE expectations they project even THREE years into the future. (like anyone can even get that right 3 months into the future)

In short the market is moving in anticipation of highly nonlinear chaotic data. If it seems completely retarded that's because it is.

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