/biz/ - Business & Finance

I can't wait to watch everyone shit and fart and cum when this homo's general assumptions end up being correct.

>>52953726
>>52954491
No shit dude. Energy majors spend a fuckton of money paying people to do this research and make those projections. There's a reason you can only get data from BP, the US Dept of Energy, or Total that's a few years old. Actually getting the data for yourself is doable, but it requires going through last year's books in multiple countries, in multiple languages, and managing to read through BS numbers to generate a full picture.

If you really want to ride the wave of the supremacy of the US chemical industry and natural gas supply, you could just invest in Occidental, Eastman, DOW, and anyone else that owns a chemical plant in the USA with easy access to low end polymer manufacturing labor in Mexico.

>>29290036
Yes. Their population pyramid is worse than the US' due to one child policy. Their zoomer and millennial incel generations are 53% male due to femicide. Their food security will not last this decade either. Also if the US collapses first, they collapse as well by default from lack of soi based consoomers.

>>29259991
Based and Zeihan-pilled

>>28490280
Based and Zeihan-pilled

>>23788631
>He thinks China exists outside of the US naval security apparatus.
>He thinks China, a nation that imports over half its calories and 85% of its energy needs can exist in a world where a blue water navy (which they don't have) fucks up their oil and gas shipments in the Indian ocean.
>He thinks the Chinese aren't cooking the fuck out of every single economic indicator
>He thinks GDP actually measures anything
>He thinks the Chinese real estate sector isn't literally imploding as we speak
>He thinks China isn't full of ghost cities that only exist to consume the tons of shit-tier concrete and pig-iron Chinese industry produces
>He thinks granaries haven't been mysteriously catching fire every time they're supposed to be audited.
>He thinks the Chinese actually maintained a strategic reserve of grains instead of selling it for pennies
>He thinks the Chinese haven't become increasingly insistent to their people about not wasting food
>He thinks they haven't been tearing down orchards and forcing them to plant rice
>He thinks they don't literally have Red Guards tending fields so at least the army can eat this winter.
>He thinks they didn't lose two harvests to the worst flooding in 100 years
>He thinks mass herd and flock culls due to disease didn't happen
>He thinks biblical locust swarms didn't fuck up China this year.

ISHYGDDT

>>21299306
as much as this guy is an idiot about race and therefore making his analysis incomplete he generally gets why just about every country in the west is fucked.
A shame he does not get how the US is fucked but then again he is selling rose tinted dreams to boomers that think the US empire will continue indefinitely.
Your analysis of the German situation with respect to trade reminded me of him that is all.

>>21200358
You really don't understand a goddamn thing about drilling infrastructure, but yet you decide to make this thread. Shale wells are not only easy to set up, shutter, and restart, A single drilling site can extend horizontally for and gather resources from an area that would have required dozens of old-school oil derricks. Additionally, a ton of the exploratory work in the shale basins has already been done. What the fuck do you think they were doing while it wasn't profitable to extract oil and gas? They were identifying where more sites should be drilled.

Also, the US petrochemical industry is massively shifting gears to use all that natural gas fracking gives off as a waste product. Buffet is all on it, as is DOW, Eastman, and ConocoPhillips. We're going to see a synthetic chemistry revolution in the US. But go on Timmy, keep running your mouth.

>>20512302
Economically, the Argies have a currency crisis every few years, seemingly as a national pastime. However, they have a few things going for them even if they're government is full of Keynesian retards. They basically food secure, they're almost energy secure, local wars are very unlikely to break out, and between them, Chile, Uruguay, and Paraguay, the southern cone of SA is essentially modern and functional as opposed to the clown shows to the north west. Also, the benefit of no foreigners trusting your economy is that you're not very integrated into the global system. The system that's on its last legs.

Also, the place is called ARGENTina for fuck's sake.

>>20336763
More than JUST energy, anon. He went in on natural gas and gas infrastructure. Our refiners were already transitioning to work off of the light, sweet crude that we get from fracking, rather than the tar we get from Arabia. All this talk about fracking being dead is just talk; the refiners are already locked into it as a feedstock now.

Similarly, we're gonna take all the gas that gets wasted and burned at the well head, and start using it. As a chemical precursor. Natural gas has the potential to be the primary input in an American synthetic chemistry revolution. A revolution, that groups like Honeywell and Dow are very interested in. Imagine the benefits of an American bulk polymers industry that undercuts the cost of Chinese imports simply by virtue of running of a virtually free feedstock, and not needing to be shipped overseas. And for manufacturing, we can simply send it to mexico through the gulf, have them do low wage labor to make a product, ship it back here, and profit.

Imagine a world where Mexico gets to be our China.

>>20157462
He may well have. I think something that gets overlooked with natural gas is that it isn't just for burning now. We basically have a huge, almost free supply of the stuff and its a great chemical precursor. Virtually any monomer or compound that uses crude or its derivatives for a feed stock can be made using sweet natural gas. When the shale boom took off, there were already some US manufacturers retooling their plants to run on it. Its similar to how the refiners want to retool to work with a light, sweet shale oil feed, instead of the sour tar that the Russians and Saudis sell. Once you're locked in to a feed composition you need a big sticker shock to switch back out.

Everyone shits on Buffet for making his best trades off inside advice, but if that's the case here, it means a whole consortium of industrial interests are switching gears.

>>19940383
>>19940195
France is likely in the best position in Europe moving into this century. NATO is done, and all the countries of Europe will need to handle their own shit. France has the only nonterminal demography in Europe, enough of a Navy to go on colonial adventures again to get what it needs and secure its regional trade, and is minimally integrated into the EU as it is. France also is far from potential conflict zones, produces much of its own food, and its development of nuclear makes it much more energy secure compared to its neighbors.

The future is grim, but America, NZ, Turkey, France, and possibly Argentina of all places, have what they need to come out alive.

>>19923215
Go home Xi, you're drunk and your country is going to starve. The Chinese don't have a blue water navy, but the Japanese do. The Chinese can't operate outside the first island chain to secure their oil shipments. The Chinese are literally one instance of global ill-will away from the largest famine in human history, because you have the same amount of arable land as the US, but 3x the mouths to feed, and you require 5x the chemical inputs to reach US productivity. All while paving over and polluting your precious farmland.

>MuH hYpErSaNiC mIsSiLeS
An absolute meme. My favorite leaked cable of last year was the one between the Chinese and Russian missile devs, where the Russians asked 'how did you solve the plasma sheath problem?', and the Chinese say 'what plasma problem?'. Chinese innovation is an oxymoron. China has already burned its bridges, and is increasingly whipping its population into a nationalist rage against the rest of the world in a hail-mary play to get them to blame the world rather than the CCP for what's about to happen. Xi went to Trump with hat in hand, and begged for an off-ramp to the coming collapse they both knew was coming, got it, then immediately let a BSL4 lab spill its spaghetti all over the place while allowing international travel, to keep a competitive edge for his country. Your dipshit government is going to invade Taiwan in a rally round the flag attempt, get embargoed (because all your neighbors with food hate you), and we will live stream the cannibalism games in Beijing.

>>18407920
RIVERS AND FARMS BITCH!

and the coming global disorder?

"We are in the midst of the great transition, and economic evolution more extreme than anything that has happened in world history since the black plague"

https://youtu.be/feU7HT0x_qU?t=1427

The developed world demography is a disaster.

>>16700114
Based Zeihan reader

>>13069185
Zeihan predicted this

America is crashing less hard than any other country right now. The entire world is heading towards recession. Pax Americana is ending.

In a way, you're right to say that Trump triggered the recession. He's destroying the post-WW2 order that included free trade subsidized by the United States. But that system hasn't worked for the U.S. in over 30 years and with the shale revolution the last external resource we needed is taken care of and it became a drag on us to run the system anymore.

The U.S. will experience a recession for a much shorter duration than the rest of the world, especially those countries that relied on international trade for a large part of their GDP.

Watch and learn my children

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lFjr-Q1qi-g

*blocks China’s path*

>geopolitics

It's great to Zeihan get more notoriety

pic related

OP is a professional writer I think. He doesn't work in tech or business, but is also extremely confident in his ability to shill this.