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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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>> No.30328022 [View]
File: 20 KB, 800x600, OptimalBAT.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
30328022

Can someone check my math, I know shit-all about economics (being a neuroscientist by trade). From the whitepaper I'm calculating the optimal number of BAT held by a speculator (z_BAT) as:
z_BAT = ($_BAT[future] - R * $_BAT[now]) / (gamma * sigma^2 * $_BAT[future]), where
$_BAT[future]: expected future price ($40)
R: risk free exchange operator (1.0 for convenience)
$_BAT[now]: current price ($0.697 yesterday)
gamma: risk aversion term (>0 - 2). 1 is risk-neutral, most people are 2, but /biz/ is easily <1, being very risk seeking
sigma^2: BAT price volatility/standard-deviation ($0.079 current 15-day volatility)

When I allow gamma to vary, it gives the following graph for the optimal number of BAT.

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