/biz/ - Business & Finance

Sure sounds like picrelated in here

Here's why OP is wrong: black swan theory.

The reason rational people continually get JUST'd is because they always process reality as a pattern. It's the same reason so many people with IQ of 110 get sucked into TA while people with IQ of 90 just HODL some shit because they like the logo and moon.

In essence OP doesn't realise is that delusion affects the rational MORE than the irrational, that ultimately he believed bitcoin was going to 100x back when it was 30 dollars then it crashed, now he has a cognitive bias and thinks it will again because 'history', the fact that he says 'this time I will watch from the sidelines' is PRECISELY what makes this time different, failed to anticipate the crash, and now he's failing to anticipate the mooning (BTC hasn't mooned until it hits 1TN market cap).

See here for more:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

tl;dr there's a reason they say 'always do the opposite of what /biz/ says', and right now most of /biz/ is anticipating a crash. "The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent" -Keynes