/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>58099205
>jobs are so hot

be careful with that one
unemployment has been steadily decreasing since 08, but is now starting to rise
(covid was fake & gay, so I ignore it)
historically just about every time it crosses above the 2yr moving average after a long decline, a recession follows

a premature hike could thus thrust us into a recession during an election year, not a great look
the government also clearly wants inflation to remain elevated to pay debts
holding is the safe play for them

>>57479796
take a good long look at pic rel
record levels of employment consistently happen right before recessions.
unemployment going above the moving average is a major red flag
watch the next print on the 5th closely

>>57479812
I refuse to hold bags
by nearly every metric the S&P is not a value buy right now for long term investors. I hodl for years, not days

>>57479822
I'm fine because I don't short like a retard

>>57447238
not for long lol

>>57385108
83% sounds high but ~73% of all years have been positive
too small of a sample to read into imo, especially since the election occurs with a month still left on the year where stocks may be affected by the outcome
we also know this election will be either a braindead slog or total shitshow (if one/both die, get arrested, etc.)

>>57385156
nothing is 100% but the inverted yield curve + unemployment rising above it's 24 month moving average are both very reliable leading recession indicators and are both flashing red
with stock prices and their valuations as high as they are, buying beyond regular long term DCA or specific stocks is a hard sell for me rn imo
>this time is different