/biz/ - Business & Finance

Look, I want copium too, but honestly, here's the best I got - looks like last cycle, we did just as well as the previous cycle, even a little better, invalidating diminishing halving - moon theories. How well that holds in the current market environment? Can it pump on rates dropping in tune with halving and ETF announcements coinciding? Is it recovery time in 2025? I don't know, maybe, but let's not lie to ourselves about "no correlation".

There is an image going around that tries to show that cycle returns steadily declined. This is false when you actually run and graph the numbers.

The last cycle peaked later than the 2016 cycle but matched it on percent gains. The 2016 cycle had a first-year post-halving peak return of around 547% on day 169 post-halving. The 2020 cycle had 654% returns post-halving, beating out the previous cycle by quite a bit.

In short, we do not, at all, have declining cycles. Furthermore, the other take away is even if you sleep a year pre-cycle, you can still make money by buying the halving. But if you buy a year before, you make bank. Or at least if the cycles hold.

Do with this what you will. Also, if some cum-guzzling bear has the FUD image, post it so we can tear it apart now that we have actual data.