/biz/ - Business & Finance

People are seriously starting to believe in the recovery, but I want to warn you, do not trust it. I'm not saying we are doomed, what I am saying is that we are are thin ice. I also want to remind you of how 2008 played out. The crash of 2008 was built up for a year before it really happened, this will be the same story. Its not if, its when.

The March crash was just a panic, nobody knew what we going to happen. This will have far reaching impacts for a long time, it snot something that the market can magically recover from. The reason the market is up is the government has pulled out all the stops. Temporary loans, low interest rates, infinite QE, massive stimulus and bail out. We've already done far more than the 2008 crash and the government is planning to triple this. That should worry you.

I want to remind you that despite this rally, large swaths of the market are still down. Banks, REITs, financials, manufacturing, air lines, hospitality. Tthe bond market is also still down, especially t bonds.

We're also experiencing the great unemployment in history, and even if 90% of these people get jobs back, it will still be a greater loss than 2008, it will still be more jobs lost than made in the last decade. Additionally, thousands of businesses not on the stock market are gone for good. Banks have tightened up loans so do not expect many new businesses to take their place. Banks have also made getting mortgages more difficult when previously they handed them out like candy. Mortgage forbearance has already passed 8% and projected to be much worse than 2008.

In short, things are bad and not going to get better, but we will go up or crab for now, just be very cautious.

>>18690038
If it mutates like the flu or a cold then no herd immunity. It just sticks around until a new one just different enough causes another pandemic. This time it doesn't go away in the summer, it could strike any time, any where. That would be a worst case scenario. We end up living in a world where everyone has a virus that could turn into a deadly pandemic at any moment.

>>18603630
>>18603655
LITERALLY SELLING EVERYTHING

Looking at options contracts for SPY. Calls are fucking DIRT CHEAP, they are almost giving them away.

>>18558746
So youre saying its even worse than what they say? Thats what I'm thinking

>>18540441
>>18540873
>>18540934
>>18540976
>>18540978
>How do REITs work?
Some dudes get a massive loan to buy skyscrapers and stadiums and malls and hundreds of houses. Then they rent that shit to people. They use the income to pay interest on the loan and the rest go to share holders as dividends. They never actually pay these loans off.
>Enter corona
Nobody paying rent. They have no money to pay debts. They are immediately bankrupt. There is no recovery because they literally cannot pay their loans. Their properties will be foreclosed and sold to the high bidder. The stock is dissolved and share holders get fucked.

Does that explain it?

>>18509443
>AMZN at ATH
>AMD nearly ATH
Everything is fine.

We are LITERALLY returning to normal. Even though everything is fucked top to bottom. We are back to normal.

>>18403542
>It doesn't have to crash
It does. We are even more fucked if it doesn't because that means we are hyper inflating. These companies don't hold the same value, and they will come down because they aren't making money. People were saying we would never crash again just before we crashed again. You are really going to say "THIS time we won't crash again!"???
>Japan
They have a different economy that is fucked from top to bottom. All Asian countries are just slave hives.

We are reaching the "return to normal". People are becoming desensitized to the deaths, the endless news cycle, unemployment. The "peak" will come within a month, as early as next week. Soon people will realize they can't just go back, they still have to pay rent/mortgage and credit cards. Debt is already stacking up. People will stop having access to credit. Jobs will not just come back. The banks will record record profits this week, might even hit SPY 300. But after that? Theres nothing left but the abyss. Its only a matter of how fast we decide to fall.

>>18366749
Bruh, there has literally never been a mass hiring event EVER in the history of the world except for conscription. Anyone who thinks people can just go back to their jobs is completely delusional.

>that sell off volume at the end

>>18001183
I recognize this pasta

Everyone is mad.

>>12958743
I was memeing, bro. Chill out.

>>5350302

Amen brothers........ Death before Weak Hands

>>4801422

Lbc

What is bytecoin? Is it just a piece of shit? I bought it at 81sats the other day. Do I just dump it? Lel