/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>52389370
>>52389370
Nope, it gives you 1/2.
Look, I hashed it out on paper, yeah if you choose the car initially then you'll get two scenarios where you pick the goat if you switch since one goat doors is chosen at random, but for every scenario where you pick the car initially there are two scenarios where you pick the goat initially, and if you switch in case you initially picked a goat, then there is only sceneario if you switch, you pick a car.

Look at the pic related where I drew it, first branch group is which door(a, B or C) the car is behind, second branch group is what you pick, if you didn't switch that'd give you the probabilities of having picked the car or the goat, green circles are scenarios where you picked the car, red scenarios where you picked the goat. Third branch group is what door you end up with if you switch, you can see that there is the same number of scenarios where you end up with a goat as where you end up with the car.