/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>19692742
>>19692767
>>19693241

Banks lending for speculation is literally ponzi lending. If we all lend money to pump asset prices, with the assets themselves being the collateral, it's just an unsustainable self inflating bubble. Just think about it, what value is being created? Are prices going up due to value creation and economic growth, or is it inflation?

Of course people won't complain either because they just see their assets going up in price and they think they're getting rich, when in fact it's all inflation. Due to the nature of inflation, those who hold the money initially before the effects of inflation kick in are able to spend the money with relatively low downside. However, in the end, society as a whole loses as the country's monetary system starts coughing up blood.

Ban speculative lending. Loans should largely only be for things that increase productivity, value, and GDP. Fuck central banks.

>>19398831

biz is being raided by institutional housing shills trying to unload their bags before a massive crash. Cashflow problems from (soon to be permanent) unemployment are hurting rentals and therefore the mortgage market. Boomer retirement and millenial poverty is going to cause a major fall in the housing spread. Smart money sees this coming, Smart money is executing their moves. They're releasing "memes" such as "rentcuck" to bait the susceptible. There is no stupider time than right now to buy real estate as an investment.

Institutions are baiting millenials and first time investors into pouring their money into the stock market to offload their bags before a coming drop. "Memes" have been manufactured and released into social media so as to bait the susceptible into pouring their savings and stimulus checks in. Record amounts of new brokerage accounts shows this to be working.

>brrrrrr
>Don't fight the fed
>the trend is your friend

There has never been a recession that was one massive drop and immediate recovery into another prolonged bull market. And there haven't been many recessions as terrible as this one. It's not covid, it's the asset bubble blown up by the fed for 10 years, the credit bubble from record low interest rates kept there for 10 years. The zombified economy keeping companies like Ford alive, rolling over their debts endlessly, always needing more.

As Druckenmiller said, the risk reward has never been this bad. But first time investors don't know him, nor do they look at charts of previous recessions, or charts at all for that matter. All they do is look at the green number on their screen and they get a sugar high. When presented with a bearish thesis they go full NPC rage instead of hedging. When they see Buffet on the sidelines they tell themselves he's gone senile, then keep loading their life savings into their accounts. They tell themselves they're investing, but they're just gambling their life savings on a losing bet.

>>19312189
Market and economy are detached currently, yes, but they always snap back to normal. It's like the analogy of a guy walking the dog with a big long leash, why's everybody focused on the direction of the dog? That's noise.

Money printing again isn't so simple. USD is the reserve currency and has far more liquidity vs the Euro, Yen, Pound, etc and essentially has a lot more to print before it catches up to the proportions other currencies have been printed at. IE deflation. You can literally look at the performance of other currencies if you don't believe me. And if you're right about inflation, can you explain the yield curve? Bond market doesn't lie.

Are you arguing that the FED will print money forever, and you don't think that's bearish for the overall economy? We're literally following the japanese playbook then, and we can see how that turned out for them. Now that we've brought it up, that Nikkei chart looks mighty familiar, right down to the exact month and dates. I bet in May there was a bunch of japanese dudes just like you lol.

Honestly by all means keep buying man, but you come across as just trying to re-assure yourself that things will recover immediately. Your knowledge about economics is very basic and is literally just memes.

>Don't fight the fed
>brrr
>shitskins and boomers and millenials consooooooom
etc etc etc,

I'm not a bear exactly, I just wanted to give the bear thesis cause you asked. Just wait and see if you don't believe me. I hope you stay solvent though lol

>>19025574

>>19016375

One last chart pulling back to the prior NIKKEI bear market. More correlations. Wait a minute... that blow off top and bear market rally look awfully familiar...