/biz/ - Business & Finance

I'm an independent financial analyst who runs my own team of advisers, and in the last 6 months we've gotten many requests for cryptocurrency advice and portfolio management. Well let me tell you what we've found:

There are perhaps at most 100-150 individuals that move the entirety of the crypto space. In the last 3.5 months we've run statistical analysis and modeling that without a doubt shows that the whole crypto market is thinner than anyone on the consumer side (that's you) realizes, otherwise you wouldn't touch this market. Our analysis shows that it only takes between $2.3MM to $3.8MM to drive the price of BTC within 3-4% from spot, and a mere $6MM to be able to manipulate swings of up to 10% from spot within a 12 to 24 hour window. Additionally, there are no large institutional investors in the crypto space, no matter what you think you believe. Behavioral analysis engine we wrote running on a powerful cluster of neural network learning algos, operating within a proprietary game-theoretic model of Bayesian probability, absolutely proves to us that the wealthiest entity that regularly trades controls no less than 8% of the total coins on the open market, with the next wealthiest entity controlling approx. 6% of all coins traded. We know this based on time-variant transaction details that we can analyze for corroborated activity across exchanges. The way we know there are no actual institutionals involved is that the entirety of the actively traded market is actually only about $1.6B deep, which became apparent when analyzing arbitrage opportunities relative to price action from smaller exchanges to larger ones.