/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56104273
>I will never learn not to lose money on the opex moves.
I'll teach you right now
Look at the positioning of the puts/calls for SPX options (not just SPY options) as well as SPY options for the quarterly triple witching
Look at the largest put/call level for that expiry
For example, this one, it's 4500
then look to the second largest around that expiry
4450 / 4550 for this one
then look at the third biggest, 4400 / 4600
sell the third biggest / position as if the third biggest will not be touched, as 95%+ of the time, they won't be (when you're within you know, a week of the expiry)
so for this expiry, the move was to sell 4400 / 440 puts - to take advantage of their positioning and ride on their coat tails
If you're not sure how to look up this stuff on your own, just follow spotgamma on youtube/twitter, he is pretty good covering each OPEX and the positioning surrounding it

>>56103228
expiry tomorrow
we've told you for almost 2 weeks that we were going to be pinned at 4500 until tomorrow, that it was not a good idea to be buying puts - that selling $440 puts was free money
you didn't listen (you never listen)
take this as a lesson in your trading career, that if we are approaching the most important option expiry of the year (3rd quarter triple witching) and there are trillions of dollars on the line, the market will remain pinned and will not fall through, with a good 95%+ probability
use their mechanics against them - if you see
>pic related
then sell $440 puts and get free money - take advantage of their positioning to boost your portfolio, do what they are doing
don't try and inverse them and buy puts and short the market
you wait until after the expiry, THEN you open your shorts

>>56095696
>>56095693

>>56078996
see
>>56049044
>expect us to revert back to 4500
>We might touch 4500 before Wednesday, mumu will be blaring all horns and declaring victory
>It's expected mumu.. there is so much riding on this OPEX
and here you are mumu. blaring your horn

>>56076751
I am still bearish, don't you worry. But 3600 is my target.
>>56049044
too much riding on this expiration
>pic related
PINNED

Reminder that we are pinned at 4500 until next Friday
No lower than 4400
No higher than 4600

>>56048975
>>56048986
expect us to revert back to 4500 due to OPEX - all according to plan
pin between 4400 and 4500 SPX
however, next Wednesday we get CPI, Thursday PPI
it will be difficult for them to pin it at 4500 with the CPI report on Wednesday - more likely (in my opinion) to push the lower bound of 4400 by the time Friday actually comes around
UNLESS, and after this whole last year of totally false criminal lying in economic reports, they are able to say "Oh CPI was only 0.2-0.3% MoM, not 0.79% MoM!"
If the CPI report comes out saying 0.2-0.3% MoM, we are genuinely in the most fraudulent market since 2008 with the banks marking up CDOs as the bonds failed
Again I would not be surprised whatsoever if they cook the CPI, again, for the 1,000th time this year, as they have done with every economic report
We might touch 4500 before Wednesday, mumu will be blaring all horns and declaring victory
It's expected mumu.. there is so much riding on this OPEX
>pic related
unironically, selling $440 SPY puts (and cashing out before Wednesday) is probably free money
it's just whether or not the charade continues through the CPI, through the PPI - a lot more risk - do you believe the cooks have your back?