/biz/ - Business & Finance

Alright so after last thread's discussion about ETF vs Individual Picks I went through my watch list and compared the rough % of gains to see just what's what and I thought I'd share it. This is using Gold's ICL in November and peak in early May for referrence. I was generous in using stocks relevant lows from as early as August. I also compared the same highs vs the March lows which for many stocks were lower than at the time of Gold's ICL, but the results were the same.
I haven't included every stock on my watch list, I skipped over a lot that were tragically underperforming and I got bored by the letter S as it was pretty clear.

GDXU btfos almost everything with a total gain of 239%. There is only one fucking stock that has outperformed the 3xLeverage Gold Miner ETFs in that timeframe and it's Dolly Varden, who beat GDXU by 10%. Obviously Snowline has outperformed in the long run too but in this timeframe it has only went up 114%

My conclusion is that there is no good reason not to simply go all-in on GDXU. Sure if you land a DV or SGD you might outperform it, but that's only if you used a significant enough portion of your PF, otherwise your other bags can drag it down.

Unless someone can point out something obvious I'm missing here, I'm going to sell all my miners and put it all into a 3xGDX. I'm already mostly in a 3xSilverETF and even that is btofing most miner picks. Sure I might miss a moonshot but I'll miss all the duds too. And as we have all known since day one, junior miners move last, so this still gives the potential to rotate profits.
Yes this bull could be different, Silver is leading the charge which is unusual so who knows what will happen, and I know that decay ultimately btfos leveraged ETFs, but a split of 3xSpot and 3xMiners seems to be the way to go if we're about to break ATH over the next few months. I might just be jaded but I'm not watching a PF of juniors crab while spot price explodes.