/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>23830289
>I don't know if the Supreme court will appoint Donald Trump to the White House or not and if they do I don't know what will or won't happen with enough specificity to time the market. You don't either but you seem to think you can. Your "probabilities" in this instance mean nothing cuz if some level of quantitative certainty could be attached to these events they already would have been by minds much greater than yours and the price would reflect that; apropos it probably does. I trade orthogonal to those probabilities. In the future the numbers will be higher than today; in the medium/short term they will fluctuate. When they go down I buy. That's the high probability play. Contrast with trying to outsmart a market full of people with infinitely more information and, more importantly, the money to soak up all the associated liquidity that information directs them to. That is what you are up against hence your mistake. Even if you're "right" you are still wrong cuz you just got lucky and luck runs out. Sometimes the market acts "irrationality" (not really in the macro sense but for the sake of argument) and sometimes your broker forgets to get the fucking date right in their app and your shorts get BTFO'd. I slept until noon today cuz the short term vicissitudes of the market are irrelevant to my stack. Market timing with retail constraints amounts to an unfactored game of Martingale and you are guaranteed to lose cuz while you think you are playing against the house you are actually playing with the house and in the house's game you are always on the losing side. I win either way cuz I play not with but in the same direction as the house. Git good.