/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>53608738
Just because the BLS is retarded doesn't mean the job market isn't robust. Look at Fed business survey responses or Gallup polls of wagies or post counts on Indeed or whatever the fuck you want as corroboration.

Now, labor markets are robust prior to recessions all the time. But my point is they are also robust in the event of a soft landing.

>As far as the rate hikes are concerned, I think they just follow the bond market (specifically the 2 year treasury)
You can throw that schizo tidbit out. You know why? Because a year ago the bond market wasn't expecting us to be sitting at 4 god damn percent after a dozen hikes. The Fed talks and telegraphs, then the market chips in its best guess.

>it it being inverted just means a slowdown has to happen.
Again, a thing that would be necessary in the event of a recession *or* a soft landing. The difference is whether that curve inversion and tightness in lending causes something to break that heems large chunks of the economy.

>The PMI is the part the confuses me, like you said, it needs to be in the 30s not 50. If the jobs data is cooked why wouldnt they cook the PMI? Maybe they wouldnt because its harder to discern than other data points? If its an accurate reading this actually might be the reversal and turn out to be the conituation of the bullrun.
Here you can fall down the rabbit hole of assuming all data is made up. Oh no! It's hopeless! Except we've had decades of putting up with China's shit so now double checking data is easy.