/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56430129
They already got wrecked. A few people were stupid enough to panic sell. Now you have some investors selling to dump their cash into T-Bills.

>>56139473
Housing won't go up faster than inflation unless purchasing power goes up.

Rates are restricting purchasing power for buyers who need a mortgage, that will not change until rates fall (Fed has no intention of doing this anytime soon).

Fed has indicated that rates are going to hang around 5% for a while until we get some event (COVID, GFC, dot com bubble) that causes a "recession", then they will cut

If the fed cuts rates, those who bought in the past year at high rates can refinance, as mortgage rates are historically fed rates + 2%. Don't expect to be able to do this until 2025 at the earliest.

High mortgage rates suck, however you do get some small tax benefits. A 300k mortgage at 3% pays 9k/year in interest - this is not enough to cover the standard deduction. A 300k mortgage at 7% pays 21k/year in interest, this is above the standard deduction (13k), meaning you will save ~25% on 8k (2k/year), making the mortgage effectively 6.3%.

Rates are important, but make sure you are paying attention to your closing costs - lenders love sneaking in bullshit fees. You should be getting quotes from multiple lenders and asking questions about everything. Title Insurance is the biggest rip off out there.

Even the most doomsday scenarios have housing going down at most 30% more. We are more likely to go sideways for a bit while incomes catch up. The "crash" happened in 2022 when rates rose to 6-7%. None of this affects you if you simply buy a place where the mortgage is less than what it would cost to rent the place. That way you can always walk away and have some idiot rent the place from you.

>>55737563
they just did last year

>>55415628
it's still regional

people don't have the purchasing power out west to afford the high prices anymore

but midwestern homes in my city aren't lasting a weekend without multiple offers

>>55272648
You're up 300k and you're complaining about paying 6k to replace the A/C?

You don't have to stay in the place. Rent it out. Rental income will cover your mortgage, then you can go rent an oceanfront condo.

Do not sell. Your mortgage is an asset that saves you hundreds per month in interest. Who knows when we'll see cheap mortgage rates now. The fed is not going to cut rates any time soon - homes are still selling at or near 2021 prices, even though rate increases have decreased purchasing power for new buyers by 40%.

Neither income nor population is going down, and they're not making any more oceanfront land.

>>55044311
We had the "crash".

It was minimal because people's financial situation didn't change (no mass unemployment) and they have an incentive NOT to sell (half price interest rates).

This creates low inventory which is what is keeping prices up. We're going to sit at these prices until the Fed fucks off and lowers the rates, then we'll be back to the 2011-2021 craziness.

>>54959755
>top of the bubble

The "bubble" peaked a year ago. Anything that is listed for 2021 pricing is gone in a few days. The only homes sitting are people hoping to still get peak early 2022 pricing at the increased rates.

6-7% rates barely made a dent because people with lower rates now have an incentive not to sell which is keeping supply low.

>>54752899
High rates disproportionately affect expensive housing.

>>54718976
Are we seeing the end of California?

SF Bay Area. Entire region is propped up on inflated tech salaries.

WFH has made it so people don't need to live in expensive metro areas to have high paying jobs. Tech has had significant layoffs in the past year. AI is going to replace a bunch of jobs in the future.

In the short term, 6% interest rates are disproportionately hurting expensive metro areas.

>>54000144
Sure buddy

>>53986238
>>53986482
>housing prices always go up..
>housing prices will be at least stable..
>housing prices will only go down a little..
>housing prices will not go down more than 10%!
you are here

>>53943778
Rent is the exact same as it was a year ago. Incomes are the exact same. Mortgage rates have more than doubled and prices are down maybe 15% in the most expensive areas out west.

>>53946880
Its keeling over across the board and interest rates are only beginning to eat their way through it

>>53938194
Add the Midwest to that.

Basically anywhere that isn't littered with spics is stable.

>>53918670
High rates disproportionately affect expensive markets. This is why you're not seeing much change in the Midwest but the West Coast is down 10-20%.

>>53805016
>right now is the peak

Zero market knowledge to accompany zero financial literacy.

Thank you for renting.

>>53787501
The top 5% was the one most affected by the rate increases. The high income earners got baited into way overpaying for luxury homes with super low rates and lowered qualification standards for jumbo loans. That's where you see most of the price decreases. Bottom of the market hasn't really changed.

>>53671600
Midwest hasn't really changed.