/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56025863
>that webm.
Does that depress you? :(

>>56027216
>But observe the asymmetry in how accurately you can predict something and how profitable it is to you
Predicting things is endlessly profitable to me. E.g. predicting rain correctly for a camping trip will mean I have the right gear and am more comfortable.

>betting
>markets
You profit there when others have different opinions that are less correct than yours. E.g. obviously everyone predicts Tottenham to win against Sheffield United. In a tipping competition that would probably profit you. In betting markets, at those rates, it might not.

The markets are a PvP zero sum game. In the real world anyone can predict and benefit. Like I tried to point out in my last post, you could do drugs and have a great time in the present, but you could also predict that in the long term you could be worse off for it. Or not. We make predictions about everything and usually the best predictions = the best life. E.g what people eat is based on predictions about what will make them satiated and, if they're real go getters, healthy. If you become healthy you profit from your good prediction. If you become less healthy then you lose from your bad prediction. And if you didn't try and predict how healthy it would make you then you'll get what you get but with less worry and effort. But other people's predictions don't impact you. Everyone can win if they get it right.

To make a point that's relevant to the argument and the OP: Markets are not measured by objective reality, they are measured with dollars. A bet on any market is as much a bet on the value of dollars. The supply of dollars expands and contracts, sometimes in response to market movements. It's tricky to predict. You can forget about markets though and just look around you. It's not so hard to make predictions about the world then.