/biz/ - Business & Finance

So many posters in this thread be hatin;, y'all aint my /dig/gahs

>>53036630
Higher Interest rates put downward pressure on stock PE multiples because bonds become an attractive alternative and will compete for capital from investors. The main driver of stock market returns is earnings, which somewhat correlated to GDP. So a scenario where rates are high, and gdp growth is low will make stock prices go down, as they become less attractive on a risk adjusted basis compared to other investments. The main driver of interest rates is bond investors supply/demand for bonds. Timing the fed is hard, but after peak rates are priced in(higher for longer) and trough earnings are priced in, the market should bottom. Stocks bottom before the recession is at its worst, as the market is forward looking by about 6-12 months.

>>52991631

>>52793441
In the 1970s the market bottomed with inflation at 7%. In addition, markets bottom before the most severe parts of the recession come, heavy job losses, earnings losses, GDP reductions.

>>52389740
Stock market bottoms -> payrolls bottom -> GDP bottom -> earnings bottom

Payrolls currently beheemed. Payrolls bottoming/bottomed by end of November.

Q4 earnings will be heemed. We already see the rampdown from Q3 earnings. This will mark the earnings bottom.

If you aren't buying now, you missed the bottom.

>>52361950
market bottoms before GDP bottoms

>>52351028
Stocks bottom before the recession ends, before the economy and unemployment get worse.

Where's the bottom?