/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>57363163
Last couple years have been absolute hell for bonds. You do NOT want to run a 60/40 going into the 1970s.

>>56388465
Depends where you are in the cycle. We're roughly 1973.

>>55389519
I got some bad news for you, chief.

>>55236223
There are no clear "buy and hold for 10 years" winners. This isn't the falling inflation environment that coddled middle-aged Boomers and their 60/40 ports.

>>54075341
There is no easy answer to quasi-stagflation environments.

>>53914169
Nothing. There is no long term winning play when the economy gets as screwed up as it is.

Why do you think 60/40 got heemed last year?

>>53660593
https://www.lynalden.com/investing-during-stagflation/

>>53650039
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nifty_Fifty is the closest historical analog and guess who lead the next bullrun?

>The long bear market of the 1970s which began with the 1973–74 stock market crash and lasted until 1982 caused valuations of the nifty fifty to fall to low levels along with the rest of the market, with most of these stocks under-performing the broader market averages. A notable exception was Wal-Mart, the best performing stock on the list, with a 29.65% compounded annualized return over a 29-year period.[1] However, Wal-Mart's initial public offering was in 1970 and only started trading on the NYSE on August 25, 1972,[4] at the end of the bull market.[5]

>>53638661
If you take an objective look, "recession" kicks in around Q3/Q4. This is too soon after yield curve inversion and with too tight a labor market. I mean, hell, we're still racking up 2%, 3% GDP growth.

That means theoretically we can squeeze a little more juice out of late cycle plays.

>>50861987
How about '73 to '75?

>>50363871
Eh, it's not totally boneheaded.

>>49911761
>>49911680
My theory is 3%. That’s where the fed wants it, a nice healthy number in the long run that doesn’t fuck the government too badly on debt interests. For the rest they will lean on Quantitative tightening. This will cause a gap between government and corporate bonds. Who the fuck knows though.

>>49874926
But what makes you think inflations here to stay?

>>49855450
Which is why inflation makes the next couple months spicy. I’m trying to figure out how to time a jump into LETFs.

Another cool infograph I got from another anon on here.
This is honestly kind of fun to me because I’ve gone from a passive investor for years, to active growth, and now to a boomer all in a decade. The future is uncertain and the whole experiment is interesting and constantly has me thinking. I’ve certainly learned a lot.
I’m lucky to have a stable life and another 20 years to see where I can get by the time I’m ready to leave the wage cage.

>>49639187
Algo trading? Yes, yes I have. Have you seen this before?

>>49509451
I left out setting your W-2 to not withhold any taxes or goldbricking at multiple jobs simultaneously. *Those* really fuck over the system.

>>49509473
Sometimes they aren't winners or have pullbacks but anything else is "lose a little" or "lose a lot". This ain't the 2010's, boyos.

>>49470858
The asset class I'd want to see added is foreign energy. Saudis must've made a killing with the embargo.

>>49470082
>pic related

>>49470241
kek