/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56234622
I don't think China's going to collapse before someone accuses me of it, but I legitimately don't understand how their economy is possibly going to keep growing at a steady pace in the coming years just solely based on their demographics.
>Housing already overbuilt and even the CCP admits it
>Population started declining last year by official numbers, may have happened even sooner
>Largest demographic cohort in China started retiring a couple of years ago and will continue to do so
>Birth rates plummeting and every indicator suggests that it's only gotten worse
>Overall number of deaths rising because again, the largest demographic cohort is hitting retirement age and is already starting to have an impact of overall deaths

I just don't understand how you can have giga-fast growth when 30% of your GDP is based on an overbuilt property sector, when your population is entering a phase of rapid decline, and is aging at the second-fastest rate in the entire world behind only South Korea. From a growth perspective this just looks like what happened to Japan on steroids, but with an even worse demographic problem that's hitting China at a point in its development that's decades behind where Japan was when it experienced the same issues. It's like if Japan's population started to enter terminal decline in 1971 instead of 2011.