/biz/ - Business & Finance

For reference - Perdue v Ossoff Georgia race
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-elections/georgia-senate-results
1.8% lead in the November race
~3% advantage for Republicans in off-year elections
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/do-republicans-really-have-a-big-turnout-advantage-in-midterms/
You're going to tell me that Dems are going to overcome a 4.8% lead when it required unprecedented mobilization of Atlanta in November?
I don't buy it
Warnock v Loeffler, Warnock is going to win
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Georgia,_2020_(Loeffler_vs._Warnock_runoff)
>32.9% Warnock vs 25.9% Loeffler
unlikely that gap could be closed

Perdue / Warnock victory = market moon 65% probability
Perdue / Loeffler victory = market moon 10%
Ossoff / Loeffler victory = market moon 5%
Ossoff / Warnock victory = market crash 20%
80% probability market moon, 20% chance market crash
Buy the dip
Worst case scenario, the dip will last a week before the market remembers that the Fed has pledged $4.6 trillion in purchases through 2021 and it will recover - take advantage of this dip if it does occur!