/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>56647677
>nobody uses yoy cpi, maybe it'll scare retail i guess
It's the headlines. The mere fact that the market knows this number will be plastered everywhere is enough to sell off. This shit's gonna go on for 8 months. The only question is if the fed is going to use it as an excuse to raise rates more. Probably. But the shock on Tuesday is my main concern now. I'm gonna be going heavy with SPY puts.

>>56647577
>>56647611
This is what is going to fuck things up big time. Look at the pattern. It goes back, forever. Plan accordingly.

>>56647577
Well here's the thing. If inflation stayed exactly on the trendline down it has been on, CPI would jump up to 4.1. That's what I'm saying. People aren't understanding that it's just based on what prices were one year ago. And one year ago is when CPI fell off a cliff. This month. Relative to that, we will "appear" to be doing the opposite. Even tho the mean trendline is perfectly straight. The problem is the CPI reporting itself. Inflation is relatively fine. But since CPI has fault in how it analyzes inflation, it will appear to be spiking back up in a big way. And that's all the market will care about. Explanations won't matter. Fear of hikes will be back. And not just fear, but expectation of them now.

>>56647001
>fake news. CPI will be in-line with expectations
Not possible. This is the time last year when CPI started accelerating downward. Relative to that, as long as real inflation is still lowering at the same rate as it has been, it will appear to have jumped up. That's why it's been 3.7 two months in a row. The one year relative scale is turning around. CPI will be 3.9 at least. The anticipation is that it will be 3.3. So this will be a major blow. Economists know this. Estimating 3.3 is the scam. And you're being taken in.

>>56646728
You're going to have a great week. After CPI comes in way hotter than expected, and it 100% will, rate hikes will be on the table again. Next month will also be a huge CPI increase. After that, it will level out again, and that will be all she wrote for bears. But the market is about to tank hard for 8-12 weeks.

>>56646632
booba

Say good bye to the stock market. Also the estimates for CPI are 3.3. It's going to be at least 3.9. This is obvious to anyone who knows how CPI is calculated. Screenshot this post. Better yet, I will. I'll explain how I knew on Tuesday. Namefagging for this purpose.