/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>55677883
>>55677883
>>55677883
>>55677921
>>55677921
>>55677921
>July 27th 8:40am EST
>the fundamentals behind the dollar falling just got crushed by ECB
>SPX 4,605
>NQ 15,728
>this is the top. the rally will not continue as the dollar reverses.
>the dollar has gotten completely crushed because investors/traders/institutions expected that other central banks would continue to aggressively raise interest rates relative to US monetary policy; that the Fed would pause, while ECB continued to hike aggressively
>this is no longer the case, after ECB release today
>in other words, all the dollar shorts are now trapped, all the euro longs are now trapped; they are forced to quickly cover or sell their positions, forcing dollar higher
>the market rallying was predicated upon DXY falling, and falling below 100 parity especially
after ECB release today, that is not going to happen - huge smashing of expectations (and the market hates when expectations are broken / the unexpected occurs)
>Unironically, this is the top
SPX 4,605 --> 4,404 20 days -4.3%
NQ 15,728 --> 14,875 -5.4%
DXY on July 27th 8:40am: 100.84 --> 103.33 +2.5%
I called the exact top within 2 points [4607 local top] within minutes. I laid it out all out there for you why in plain English. You did not listen. You never listen.
Everything else has only snowballed on top of this final straw that broke the camels back. The camel is already dead, and more weight continues to be piled on to its corpse.
>inflation surging higher
>yields surging higher
>dollar surging higher
It hasn't even begun, mumu.

>>56660075
It's not cope

>July 27th 8:40am EST
>the fundamentals behind the dollar falling just got crushed by ECB
>SPX 4,605
>NQ 15,728
>this is the top. the rally will not continue as the dollar reverses.
>the dollar has gotten completely crushed because investors/traders/institutions expected that other central banks would continue to aggressively raise interest rates relative to US monetary policy; that the Fed would pause, while ECB continued to hike aggressively
>this is no longer the case, after ECB release today
>in other words, all the dollar shorts are now trapped, all the euro longs are now trapped; they are forced to quickly cover or sell their positions, forcing dollar higher
>the market rallying was predicated upon DXY falling, and falling below 100 parity especially
after ECB release today, that is not going to happen - huge smashing of expectations (and the market hates when expectations are broken / the unexpected occurs)
>Unironically, this is the top
SPX 4,605 --> 4,404 20 days -4.3%
NQ 15,728 --> 14,875 -5.4%
DXY on July 27th 8:40am: 100.84 --> 103.33 +2.5%
I called the exact top within 2 points [4607 local top] within minutes. I laid it out all out there for you why in plain English. You did not listen. You never listen.
Everything else has only snowballed on top of this final straw that broke the camels back. The camel is already dead, and more weight continues to be piled on to its corpse.
>inflation surging higher
>yields surging higher
>dollar surging higher
It hasn't even begun, mumu.

Share your favorite bobo post. Here's mine:

>>55677883
>>55677883
>>55677883
>>55677921
>>55677921
>>55677921
>July 27th 8:40am EST
>the fundamentals behind the dollar falling just got crushed by ECB
>SPX 4,605
>NQ 15,728
>this is the top. the rally will not continue as the dollar reverses.
>the dollar has gotten completely crushed because investors/traders/institutions expected that other central banks would continue to aggressively raise interest rates relative to US monetary policy; that the Fed would pause, while ECB continued to hike aggressively
>this is no longer the case, after ECB release today
>in other words, all the dollar shorts are now trapped, all the euro longs are now trapped; they are forced to quickly cover or sell their positions, forcing dollar higher
>the market rallying was predicated upon DXY falling, and falling below 100 parity especially
after ECB release today, that is not going to happen - huge smashing of expectations (and the market hates when expectations are broken / the unexpected occurs)
>Unironically, this is the top
SPX 4,605 --> 4,404 20 days -4.3%
NQ 15,728 --> 14,875 -5.4%
DXY on July 27th 8:40am: 100.84 --> 103.33 +2.5%
I called the exact top within 2 points [4607 local top] within minutes. I laid it out all out there for you why in plain English. You did not listen. You never listen.
Everything else has only snowballed on top of this final straw that broke the camels back. The camel is already dead, and more weight continues to be piled on to its corpse.
>inflation surging higher
>yields surging higher
>dollar surging higher
It hasn't even begun, mumu.

>>56454033
>something crazy must have happened on August 1
It happened on July 27th
>>55677820
>>55677883
>>55677921
>>/biz/?task=search&ghost=false&search_text=euro+shorts
>ECB just gave indication that they may be less hawkish moving forward
this was the straw that broke the camels back, as prior to this, the dollar had been moving like
>pic related
to explain the dynamics at play here for newfags such as yourself (even though you've been lurking here for ages making similar screeching posts to this one)
US economy surprised to upside based on (false, propaganda) data [funds operate on this data whether it is true or it is false.. another dynamic /smg/ fails to understand] meanwhile EU economy was farding and shidding - especially German economy. EU waved the white flag in the fight against inflation, prioritizing economic growth over lower inflation - this means lower interest rates, less economic activity
>lower interest rates offered on bonds requiring native currency to buy the bonds = less demand for the bonds with lower rates and less demand for the currency with which to buy those bonds
>less economic activity = literally less demand for euros from everyone, that someone doesn't need euros to pay their employee as they laid them off, or someone doesn't need euros in order to buy a new car as they are not spending - overall less demand for euros
meanwhile US rates going up and up, Fed has the ability to keep tightening as US economy has not exploded yet = US bonds more attractive, relative to EU bonds - in dollar basket euro is 57% of the weighting, so changes in euro = big changes in the dollar index
since then, dollar has gone up from 99 to now 106
this is too large of a headwind for the market to overcome, let alone the effect that higher rates has on the markets, which we have explained to you over and over - this is not even mentioning foreign CBs selling US assets
>>56393382
>>56393400
>>56393409
>feeding caviar to pigs

>>55677883
>>55677921
July 27th 8:40am EST
the fundamentals behind the dollar falling just got crushed by ECB
>SPX 4,605
>NQ 15,728
>this is the top. the rally will not continue as the dollar reverses.
>the dollar has gotten completely crushed because investors/traders/institutions expected that other central banks would continue to aggressively raise interest rates relative to US monetary policy; that the Fed would pause, while ECB continued to hike aggressively
>this is no longer the case, after ECB release today
>in other words, all the dollar shorts are now trapped, all the euro longs are now trapped; they are forced to quickly cover or sell their positions, forcing dollar higher
>the market rallying was predicated upon DXY falling, and falling below 100 parity especially after ECB release today, that is not going to happen - huge smashing of expectations (and the market hates when expectations are broken / the unexpected occurs)
>Unironically, this is the top
SPX 4,605 --> 4,387. 2 months later -4.8%
DXY on July 27th 8:40am: 100.84 --> 105.63. +4.8%
NQ 15,728 --> 15,302. -2.8%
These historic posts marked the exact top within 2 points and within minutes. All information had been laid out there for you in plain English. You did not listen. You never listen.
Everything else has only snowballed on top of this final straw that broke the camels back. The camel is already dead, and more weight continues to be piled on to its corpse.
>inflation surging higher
>yields surging higher
>dollar surging higher
Truly, it hasn't even begun, mumu.

I'm still holding my euro shorts and Ill fucking die on this hill REEE


>>56108260
>There'll be war eventually
No. Mainland is not gonna invade. Perhaps as a desperate last gasp, a big gamble, when everything else fails.

Friendly reminder. The clock keeps ticking.

>>55677883
>>55677883
>>55677883
>>55677921
>>55677921
>>55677921
>July 27th 8:40am EST
>the fundamentals behind the dollar falling just got crushed by ECB
>SPX 4,605
>NQ 15,728
>this is the top. the rally will not continue as the dollar reverses.
>the dollar has gotten completely crushed because investors/traders/institutions expected that other central banks would continue to aggressively raise interest rates relative to US monetary policy; that the Fed would pause, while ECB continued to hike aggressively
>this is no longer the case, after ECB release today
>in other words, all the dollar shorts are now trapped, all the euro longs are now trapped; they are forced to quickly cover or sell their positions, forcing dollar higher
>the market rallying was predicated upon DXY falling, and falling below 100 parity especially
after ECB release today, that is not going to happen - huge smashing of expectations (and the market hates when expectations are broken / the unexpected occurs)
>Unironically, this is the top
SPX 4,605 --> 4,383
DXY on July 27th 8:40am: 100.84 --> 103.95
I called the exact top within 2 points [4607 local top] within minutes. I laid it out all out there for you why in plain English. You did not listen. You never listen.
Everything else has only snowballed on top of this final straw that broke the camels back. The camel is already dead, and more weight continues to be piled on to its corpse.
>inflation surging higher
>yields surging higher
>dollar surging higher
It hasn't even begun, mumu.

>>55677883
>>55677883
>>55677883
>>55677921
>>55677921
>>55677921
>July 27th 8:40am EST
>the fundamentals behind the dollar falling just got crushed by ECB
>SPX 4,605
>NQ 15,728
>this is the top. the rally will not continue as the dollar reverses.
>the dollar has gotten completely crushed because investors/traders/institutions expected that other central banks would continue to aggressively raise interest rates relative to US monetary policy; that the Fed would pause, while ECB continued to hike aggressively
>this is no longer the case, after ECB release today
>in other words, all the dollar shorts are now trapped, all the euro longs are now trapped; they are forced to quickly cover or sell their positions, forcing dollar higher
>the market rallying was predicated upon DXY falling, and falling below 100 parity especially
after ECB release today, that is not going to happen - huge smashing of expectations (and the market hates when expectations are broken / the unexpected occurs)
>Unironically, this is the top
SPX 4,605 --> 4,404 20 days -4.3%
NQ 15,728 --> 14,875 -5.4%
DXY on July 27th 8:40am: 100.84 --> 103.33 +2.5%
I called the exact top within 2 points [4607 local top] within minutes. I laid it out all out there for you why in plain English. You did not listen. You never listen.
Everything else has only snowballed on top of this final straw that broke the camels back. The camel is already dead, and more weight continues to be piled on to its corpse.
>inflation surging higher
>yields surging higher
>dollar surging higher
It hasn't even begun, mumu.

>>55677883
>>55677883
>>55677883
>>55677921
>>55677921
>>55677921
>July 27th 8:40am EST
>the fundamentals behind the dollar falling just got crushed by ECB
>SPX 4,605
>NQ 15,728
>this is the top. the rally will not continue as the dollar reverses.
>the dollar has gotten completely crushed because investors/traders/institutions expected that other central banks would continue to aggressively raise interest rates relative to US monetary policy; that the Fed would pause, while ECB continued to hike aggressively
>this is no longer the case, after ECB release today
>in other words, all the dollar shorts are now trapped, all the euro longs are now trapped; they are forced to quickly cover or sell their positions, forcing dollar higher
>the market rallying was predicated upon DXY falling, and falling below 100 parity especially
after ECB release today, that is not going to happen - huge smashing of expectations (and the market hates when expectations are broken / the unexpected occurs)
>Unironically, this is the top
SPX 4,605 --> 4,404 20 days -4.3%
NQ 15,728 --> 14,875 -5.4%
DXY on July 27th 8:40am: 100.84 --> 103.33 +2.5%
I called the exact top within 2 points [4607 local top] within minutes. I laid it out all out there for you why in plain English. You did not listen. You never listen.
Everything else has only snowballed on top of this final straw that broke the camels back. The camel is already dead, and more weight continues to be piled on to its corpse.
>inflation surging higher
>yields surging higher
>dollar surging higher
It hasn't even begun, mumu.

>>55755240
nope, it was the morning session same day (27th) 4607 SPX, pic related
I know, because I called it within 2 points, after ECB decision caused dollar trade to die, killing one of the key pillars supporting equities
>>55677883
>>55677883
>>55677883
>this is the moment that the dollar trade has switched from bullish to bearish; the fundamentals behind the dollar falling just got crushed by ECB
>SPX 4,605
>NQ 15,728
this is the top. the rally will not continue as the dollar reverses. you will wonder why - why is the market falling after great earnings?
this is why. expectations for ECB policy are now declining, dollar shorts must unwind, euro longs must unwind

>>55677902
>>55677883
you should be now
I cannot emphasize enough how big of a deal this is, /smg/ doesn't trade currencies, doesn't understand bonds, doesn't understand currency movements
this is a huge, huge, huge deal - the entire basis for the market rallying just got undone; the market has rallied in nominal terms (dollar terms) as the dollar has gotten completely crushed
the dollar has gotten completely crushed because investors/traders/institutions expected that other central banks would continue to aggressively raise interest rates relative to US monetary policy; that the Fed would pause, while ECB continued to hike aggressively
this is no longer the case, after ECB release today
in other words, all the dollar shorts are now trapped, all the euro longs are now trapped; they are forced to quickly cover or sell their positions, forcing dollar higher
the market rallying was predicated upon DXY falling, and falling below 100 parity especially
after ECB release today, that is not going to happen - huge smashing of expectations (and the market hates when expectations are broken / the unexpected occurs)
Unironically, this is the top

>>55677820
dollar just went green on the day, after being down fairly big
get out now. unironically, this is the top
this is the moment that the dollar trade has switched from bullish to bearish; the fundamentals behind the dollar falling just got crushed by ECB
>SPX 4,605
>NQ 15,728
this is the top. the rally will not continue as the dollar reverses. you will wonder why - why is the market falling after great earnings?
this is why. expectations for ECB policy are now declining, dollar shorts must unwind, euro longs must unwind
reminder: US stocks are priced in dollars!

ECB just gave indication that they may be less hawkish moving forward
>"The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be brought to levels sufficiently restrictive to achieve a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target and will be kept at those levels for as long as necessary."
>Meanwhile, in July now they are saying:
>"The Governing Council’s future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates will be set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary to achieve a timely return of inflation to the 2% medium-term target."
>The difference being that in June, they were still able to pre-commit to a further rate hike. But now, they can't really do so for September and the language reflects that. I would expect Lagarde to reaffirm that they may still hike again after the summer but as things stand, that is certainly not going to be a given like the decision today.
>EUR/USD is down slightly from 1.1125 to 1.1100 currently while euro area bond yields are also slumping with 10-year German bond yields now down 5 bps to 2.40%.

Unironically very bearish, as the dollar trade was built upon "Oh the ECB (and others) will continue to be hawkish and aggressively hiking, while the Fed is done - long the Euro!"
Now that idea is being tested, a whole bunch of dollar shorts, euro longs will unwind, making DXY rise
DXY rising = very bearish
the market rallying has been all built upon the dollar falling, and falling rapidly
now that is being put to the test

>>54161664
This current raid is fucking intolerable. But the market pumped because of a short squeeze. Remember how the VIX shot up but stocks didn't drop? The market must've been hunting for shorts and was also helped by the dollar getting weaker to the Euro. A perfect storm of sorts.

closed my Euro shorts, might keep going down but I don't like risk

>>53571309

Nexo shills were obvious and really distinct. Please shut the fuck up. I was the anon originally point out nexo shit in 2020.
They’d always arrive in huge numbers shitting up everything with typical eastern euro english, and it would aways be on a day link was dumped hard after you saw LINK sent to binance from the Nexo wallets(they never tried to hide this). Then, they’d magically all disappear instantly a day later after the dump ended assumedly after shorts were already closed.

They haven’t done that since late 2021, which is around the time they stopped even moving LINK about much. There was a brief moment in 2022 when their wallets were getting drained though. Nexo shills are always tone deaf and easily spotted.
Considering they have been arrested and put under investigation after their bulgarian office was raided by the government i do not see them having any budget to fud link anymore.

I used to think it was more exciting and interesting when it was paid actors doing it, and logically it made sense. Turns out reality is the OP. When you really think about it and scrutinise the “fud” now it makes way more sense.

>>52221366
Shorts are covered
Swiss bank account filled
Euro account in the negative
and a bunch of stable coins ride at an average of 15% on some blockchains

There will be a liquidity and credit crisis as banks and online payment systems are about to suffer a huge outage in Europe and the United States. There are already talks of a liquidity and credit crisis happening in inner circles. This is big

Saturday- Banks and online payment systems will suffer an outage in Europe and the United States spreading worldwide. Talks of a Liquidity and credit crisis happening will spread rapidly.

Sunday- Customers will try to get money from banks but will be turned away. Talks of bank runs on twitter and facebook will be promptly banned. Late-Sunday night Euro-zone banks will suffer a liquidity issue and fail critical margin levels.

Monday 26th- Liquidity crisis contagion will spread to the United States. Financial instruments much like those used by Archegos will blow up across the entire financial sector. Bank of America, JP Morgan, and Goldman Sachs are rumoured to be insolvent along with others. The Super Rich will attempt to pull their money out of the banks only to be denied. Stock market will drop 20% and is closed for the day. Tether and other stable coins will fail causing crypto currencies to crash as they become illiquid. Short-Mid term is that crypto currencies will become worthless.

Tuesday- Eurozone total melt down. Bank deposits are bailed and most people will lose all their money. Social protests erupt. U.S. stock market will drop another 20% before being halted for the day again. Hedge funds will collapse and banks are stuck with meme stock shorts which will be revealed to be in the trillions. Banks fail critical margin levels and the DTCC will be forced to cover the shorts. DTCC insurance policy will fail as the insurers never had money to begin with and the Federal Reserve is stuck with the bag.

>>50645164
But beware of the reverse repo 2 and 10 year bond inversion. You will want to avoid max pain as USD rises against the Euro. Hedge against your shorts with alt coins, and go long on the MACD. After that, it's all tendies.

Screen cap this and trade accordingly.

We fake out to 23400 tonight, begin falling as the weekend ends and uncertainty returns/fall to liquidity zone before the FED on the 28th.
The 75/100 points will be 'priced in' due to Euro doing the same and also the need to squeeze shorts before continuing lower.

On a macro level we have mid August/Sep being historically terrible months and they will be the same - inflation will not fall, likely stays high/ higher for the next few months... Recession formally enters the chat in Sep.

>>50302524
shorts will be squeezed to 1 EURO = 10 USD

>>50282112
This is Hargreaves Landsdown, but any CREST (or similar) system it is how it works. It is because of currency conversion from host currency to USD and thus CREST is a depository of real shares (it has to be) and they are not lendable because of it, also they are in a ISA which means doubly so.

Any euro who isn't using a neobroker / limited margin account (revolut) will have this same thing happen, as this is what happened with Tesla. Waiting a few days for the dividend is fine, I have 68 shares in CS (272 post split) and a bunch more in a pension with HL too.

You also can't sell during this time, which is fine, because that makes it worse for shorts anyway and I wasn't planning on selling until the streets of NYC taste of orange tang

dont fuck with NEXO they are pure bulgarian gangsta mafioso, they traffic children, drugs, weapons and missiles. They connected to big euro banks and help launder dirty laundry. They got enough cash from their illegal dealings to cover all their shorts and stay solvent.

>>49943358
I shorted to 17600 and have shorts open on 15200 and 11800 next. Made 80K so far shorting the American/Euro markets and Bitcorn this month.